November is here, and there are just four weeks left in the 2021 college football regular season.
Week 10 features one matchup between ranked teams. No. 12 Auburn travels to No. 14 Texas A&M in a SEC West showdown. The rest of the College Football Playoff hopefuls will look to keep pace. A total of 12 teams ranked in the AP Top 25 are favored by double digits.
Each week, Sporting News picks every AP Top 25 game by the spread. Here is a look at our track record this season:
- Straight up: 124-44 (10-9 in Week 9)
- Against the spread: 82-86 (7-12 in Week 9)
- Upsets : 7-12 (0-4 in Week 9)
With that in mind, a look at this week’s picks:
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Week 10 Picks Against the Spread
Wednesday, Nov. 3
- Georgia State at No. 24 Louisiana (-11.5) (7:30 p.m., ESPN)
Georgia State is on a three-game win streak and covered as a double-digit underdog against Auburn on Sept. 25. Louisiana is 2-4 ATS a favorite this year. The Ragin’ Cajuns will slow the Panthers’ ground game at home and cover in the fourth quarter.
Pick: Louisiana wins 34-20 and COVERS the spread.
Saturday, Nov. 6
- Missouri at No. 1 Georgia (-38.5) (12 p.m., ESPN)
The Bulldogs will be the top team in the first set of CFP rankings, and this is their largest spread to date this season. Georgia is 5-2 ATS as a favorite this year, and Missouri has already suffered a 38-point loss to Tennessee. The Bulldogs have won seven in a row in the series. That spread might be a touch too high if the Tigers can put in a cosmetic TD late.
Pick: Georgia wins 42-6 and FAILS TO COVER the spread.
- No. 6 Ohio State (-14.5) at Nebraska (12 p.m., FOX)
The Huskers have suffered three straight one-score losses and are on the brink of another losing season under Scott Frost. The Buckeyes’ defense has improved, and the offense will clean up the red-zone issues it had against Penn State. That’s bad news for Nebraska. Ohio State has won the last two meetings by an average of 33 points per game.
Pick: Ohio State wins 45-23 and COVERS the spread.
- No. 10 Wake Forest at North Carolina (-2.5) (12 p.m., ACC)
The over is set at 75.5 in what promises to be a shootout between quarterbacks Sam Hartman and Sam Howell. The Tar Heels are 2-4 ATS as a favorite with three outright losses. The home team has won the last six meetings, but Wake Forest breaks that trend.
Pick: Wake Forest wins 44-41 in an UPSET.
- Liberty at No. 15 Ole Miss (-9.5) (12 p.m., SEC Network)
Former Ole Miss coach Hugh Freeze is up against his old team, and that’s just one headline. The quarterback matchup between Matt Corral and Malik Willis will have NFL scouts’ attention. The over (68.5) is in play here too. The Rebels are 4-1 ATS as a favorite, and Lane Kiffin has to have this one straight up.
Pick: Ole Miss wins 41-34 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
- No. 23 SMU (-5.5) at Memphis (12 p.m., ESPNU)
The Mustangs are coming off a shocking loss to Houston. The Tigers have been all over the place this season, but they are 3-1 at home. Memphis also has won the last three at home against SMU. If Tigers quarterback Seth Henigan (hand) is healthy, they might have a chance.
Pick: SMU wins 34-30 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
- No. 14 Baylor (-6.5) at TCU (3:30 p.m., FOX)
TCU parted ways with longtime coach Gary Patterson this week, so it’s anybody’s guess what kind of frame of mind the Horned Frogs are in. Baylor continues to win with a punishing ground game that averages 233.9 rushing yards per game. The Bears also are 5-1 ATS as a favorite. The line has already moved up a point.
Pick: Baylor wins 34-22 and COVERS the spread.
- Tulsa at No. 2 Cincinnati (-22.5) (3:30 p.m., ESPN2)
The Bearcats’ are being pressured to run up the score given their precarious playoff position, and they have failed to cover spreads of 20 points or more the last two weeks. Tulsa presents one of those “common opponent” chances. Ohio State beat the Golden Hurricane 41-20 earlier this season. The Golden Hurricane get the back-door cover here, too.
Pick: Cincinnati wins 42-21 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
- No. 5 Michigan State (-2.5) at Purdue (3:30 p.m., ABC)
The Spartans have covered in four straight games and are 6-2 ATS this season. Purdue has struggled in losses to power-running teams in Notre Dame, Minnesota and Wisconsin. There is a small risk for a letdown for Michigan State after last week’s win against Michigan, but the line is short enough that you take the more consistent team.
Pick: Michigan State wins 28-21 and COVERS the spread.
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- Navy at No. 8 Notre Dame (-20.5) (3:30 p.m., NBC)
The Irish have won the last two meetings with the Midshipmen by 27 points per game. Navy is 5-1 ATS as a double-digit underdog, and that includes one-score losses against Houston, SMU and Cincinnati. Navy slows this one down just enough to get a cover, too.
Pick: Notre Dame wins 34-16 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
- No. 11 Oklahoma State (-2.5) at West Virginia (3:30 p.m., ESPN)
This might be the trickiest line of the week. The Mountaineers are 3-1 at home and 3-0 ATS as an underdog, and the Cowboys are trying to stay in the Big 12 championship hunt. Oklahoma State has won the last six meetings, however, and they do enough in the running game to escape Morgantown with a victory.
Pick: Oklahoma State wins 31-25 and COVERS the spread.
- No. 12 Auburn at No. 13 Texas A&M (-3.5) (3:30 p.m., CBS)
Auburn has found its groove with back-to-back double-digit victories, but they face a tough challenge on the road against Texas A&M. The Aggies had a bye week to prepare, and Texas A&M is 5-2 S/U with a rest advantage under Jimbo Fisher.
Pick: Texas A&M wins 28-23 and COVERS the spread.
- Tennessee at No. 18 Kentucky (-2.5) (3:30 p.m., ESPN2)
We are really tempted to take Tennessee here. The Volunteers had a bye week and have an offense that will test a Kentucky team coming off back-to-back road losses. The Wildcats, however, are 4-0 at home against FBS opponents and have covered in all of those games.
Pick: Kentucky wins 30-27 and COVERS the spread.
- No. 22 Penn State (-11.5) at Maryland (3:30 p.m., FS1)
The Nittany Lions are trying to break a three-game losing streak, which Maryland did last week. The Terps are 1-3 ATS as an underdog, which isn’t great, but they are at home trying to clinch bowl eligibility. Maryland beat Penn State 35-19 last season. This will be close.
Pick: Penn State wins 34-29 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
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- No. 23 Coastal Carolina (-19.5) at Georgia Southern (6 p.m., ESPN+)
The Chanticleers failed to cover last week, but the offense remains a problem. The Eagles are on a three-game losing skid and can’t play keepaway if they get off to a slow start.
Pick: Coastal Carolina wins 40-19 and COVERS the spread.
- LSU at No. 3 Alabama (-28.5) (7 p.m., ESPN)
How will the Crimson Tide send off Ed Orgeron? Alabama won the last meeting 55-17, but Orgeron led LSU to a victory in the last visit to Bryant-Denny Stadium. Alabama has won by an average of 34 points per game in back-to-back covers since the Texas A&M loss. The Tigers show fight, and this one falls near the line.
Pick: Alabama wins 48-21 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
- No. 19 Iowa (-10.5) at Northwestern (7 p.m., BTN)
The Hawkeyes suffered back-to-back losses, but Northwestern has been in a tougher place. The Wildcats have been blown out in three of their last four games. Northwestern has won four of the last five meetings. At home, they find a way to hang around.
Pick: Iowa wins 26-17 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
- Boise State at No. 25 Fresno State (-5.5) (7 p.m., CBSSN)
These Mountain West Conference championship game regulars meet in a series they have split in the last four meetings. Boise State has four losses by 10 points or less, and they have a chance to pull the upset on the road. Only this time, Fresno State’s Jake Haener comes through in the clutch.
Pick: Fresno State wins 30-27 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
- No. 7 Oregon (-6.5) at Washington (7:30 p.m., ABC)
Oregon is 0-6 ATS as a favorite this season, a remarkable trend for the Pac-12 leader. That’s a tough bet on the road at Washington, which has played in five straight one-score games. Oregon has won the last two meetings by a combined total of seven points. We’re going to bet through it.
Pick: Oregon wins 32-24 and COVERS the spread.
- Indiana at No. 9 Michigan (-19.5) (7:30 p.m., FOX)
Michigan is coming off a tough loss to Michigan State, but motivation won’t be required this week. The Hoosiers embarrassed the Wolverines 38-21 last season. Michigan is 8-2 S/U in night games at home.
Pick: Michigan wins 32-15 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
MORE: Questionable calls at center of Michigan loss at MSU
- No. 20 Houston (-12.5) at South Florida (7:30 p.m., ESPNU)
The Cougars are in the AAC mix after a dramatic win against SMU, and now they have to maintain that focus against the Bulls on the road. South Florida has played better at home, but the Cougars keep rolling with another cover.
Pick: Houston wins 40-25 and COVERS the spread.
- No. 16 UTSA (-11.5) at UTEP (10:15 p.m., ESPN2)
Who knew one of the best games of the week would be in El Paso? The Miners have been a super dog all season at 3-1 ATS. UTSA has won the last four meetings by double digits and averaged 39.4 points per game. The line has dropped a point, and it could get wild.
Pick: UTSA wins 38-28 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.